College Picks 11/17

San Diego State vs. Air Force
Play: San Diego St +11 (3 Stars)

This game is all about Air Force and how it has won five of six including a win at Notre Dame last Saturday. Big deal. Yes the Falcons are playing very good right now but with the exception of their thumping of Army, this team has not done much dominating. Of the other four wins during this run, they have outgained two opponents and been outgained by two opponents with a net +81 total in those four games.
San Diego St. has quietly gone about its business with two straight wins which followed a heart-breaking loss at home to New Mexico by three points two weeks prior. The Aztecs sit at 3-2 in the MWC and believe it or not, they still have a shot at a share of the title. If Utah can knock off the Cougars in two weeks, and San Diego St. wins its rescheduled game with BYU on December 1st, it is possible.

Last year, San Diego St. had to keep things simple and start from scratch with three different quarterbacks. This year, it could build with one as Kevin O’Connell as remained healthy and has put up good numbers. He is 35th in th4e country in total offense which is pretty goof considering the Aztecs finished 108th in total offense a year ago. O’Connell is dangerous with both his arm and his feet.

The Falcons are cranking with their option attack and it will be up for the Aztecs to try and slow them down. They have been able to control some goods rushing teams and while stopping Air Force is not an option, slowing it down enough is so the offense can control as much of the clock as possible. Confidence is important as the Aztecs are 2-1 in their past three road games after losing their previous nine road/neutral site contests.

While Air Force is great at running the ball, 4th in the country, it is only 62 in scoring offense so it isn’t going to run away with anything. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points off one or more straight overs, in a game involving two teams that are averaging between 21 and 28 ppg after seven or more games. This situation is 24-6 ATS (80 percent) since 1992 with the average point differential being just -5.8 ppg. Play San Diego St.

Pittsburgh at Rutgers
Play: Pittsburgh +12 (2 Stars)

Afer making it all the way to a #10 ranking Rutgers certainly has fallen like a rock losing 4 of their last 7 games. Last week they had an easy time dispatching Army 41-6 and will look to continue that success when they host Pittsburgh. The win last week put Rutgers at 6-4 SU overall and 5-4 ATS. They are 1-2 ATS over the last three games and will be facing a Pittsburgh team who is 10-5 SU versus Rutgers since 1992.

Rutgers hasn't had trouble scoring as they are averaing 30 points per game. It's there defense that has caused problems giving up 27 points per game in conference play.

Pittsburgh comes into this game having faired not much better than Rutgers lately as they have lost 4 of their last 6 SU overall and sit at 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS on the season. They are coming off a win last week but had a suprisingly tough time versus not a very good Syracuse team. Over their last three ballgames they are 2-1 ATS.

The Pittsburgh offense has had problems on the road as they are scoring only 14 points per game on the road this season. Fortunately for Pittsburgh their defense has been stingy lately giving up only 19 points per game in their last three contests.

SUPPORTING ANGLES: RUTGERS is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers since 1992. RUTGERS is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better since 1992.

Suprisingly, with a win today Pittsburgh would still be in the hunt for the Big East title. In addition, they have had a week off to prepare for Rutgers which should help. Lots of points to cover with a team that isn't playing much better than Pittsburh right now. Take Pitt.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Play: Oklahoma -7.5 (3 Stars)

After allowing Texas 59 points last week at Lubbock, and scoring 45, expect the Sooners to have more of a defense in play this week against Mike Leach's Red Raiders. There is no doubt when Texas Tech plays a high caliber team with Frosh Sensation QB Sam Bradford at the helm, that is a disiplined team like OU, they are in trouble.

Bob Stoops will look at the Missouri film and study how the Tigers held this offense and all world QB Harrell to 10 points and execute a plan. Texas Tech cannot stop anyone, and the balance of OU on offense is solid and with a great 1-2 punch at RB, not to mention WR Kelly who will stun the secondaty in this one.

OU is in the hunt for a national title playing either Kansas or Mizzou in 2 weeks for a shot at the elusive Title that Stoops has won once but been beaten twice since then. OU will not look past this game. I respect the Red Raiders offense but allowing 32 ppg their last 3 games, and playing 3 good teams the last 4 weeks and losing to those 3 good teams has me all over OU in this one, who have covered 5 out of the past 6 years.