HR DERBY BETS

The derby is pretty unpredictable. There really is no science to it, and sometimes the guy who hits the most hr's doesn't always win because they are tired out for the final round. So, if you are like us, and you insist on gambling on such ridiculous things as we do, here are our recommended plays.

3 Star- Magglio Ordonez. He's having a solid year at the plate and is a consistent threat to go deep. His odds are also at a whopping 10-1, so we'll take those odds and make a play on him.

2 Star- Justin Morneau. Our backup play is a solid 6-1 and hitting a hot bat right now with 4 hrs in his last 3 games.

4 Star Play of the Day

Yankees -1.5

Ervin Santana has been struggling this year and matching up with the Yankees offense is bad news for him. In the meantime, Chien Ming-Wang is hitting his stride having won 5 games in a row. We like the Yankees big in this one.

2 Star Play of the Day

Tigers -1.5

With Detroits explosive offense facing a young inexperienced pitcher we're going with the Tigers in this one.

3 Star Play of the Day

Dodgers -1.5 (+155)

This is a pick based off of trends. The Dodgers have had plenty of success against the Marlins lately, winning seven of 10 over them since the start of last season, and 16 of their last 23 over Florida at Dodgers Stadium dating back to 1999. In addition to that, tonight's starter Chad Billingsly pitched a scoreless inning of relief against the Marlins this season, and was stellar in his two starts against them as a rookie last year, giving up one run and six hits in 13 innings to win both starts. The Marlins are just 4-8 since June 23.

Peakplayers is now 10-1 ATS since returning on 6/24/07.

2 Star Bet of the Day

Angels -1.5

We find it highly unlikely that the Rangers will pull off the sweep against the Angels in this series finale. And with Kelvim Escobar on the hill, whose coming off his shortest start of the year, we're liking the Angels in this one. Peakplayers bases many picks off the pitching matchups and with Robinson Tejada (5-7, 6.69 ERA), taking the mound for the Rangers we're doing it again.

Coming out a winner at the end of the season

Professional gamblers in any niche of the betting industry will tell you that in order to win you have to have a strategy.

When it comes to sports betting, there are several areas in which gamblers can find themselves in real trouble at the end of a season. It’s important to take the professional approach and go into the season with a strategy when it comes to betting that will help to maximize your returns and have you in the black at the end of the season. We’re going to take a look at some ways that can help you come out of any given sports season in the black. The first part of this mini series will deal with the cold cash that you place on games during the season.

Create a budget. In order to make sure you don’t get over your head in sports betting, it’s important to have an idea going in about how much you can afford to play with. Creating a budget at the beginning of the season will give you an idea on how much you can bet per game. You can go even further with this and divide the money up further; some to be used for games which are great value (you’ll want to put a little more on these) and some which you are pretty sure about but could go either way.

Stick to the plan!!! When it comes to sports gambling, winning can be a real rush. Within the first two weeks of the NFL season a good streak can have a new gambler betting much higher than planned. The thought process here is usually, “I can’t seem to miss and think how much money I COULD have won if I’d bet more, earlier!”

This thought process is a total profit killer. You have to remember that sports seasons are long, and especially in today’s age of parity, teams have a chance of winning or losing every night. Your own record is no guarantee of a win on your instincts. Further, a team on a really hot streak is usually a bad value bet; the money lines and spreads are so high that a loss or failing to bat the spread could wipe out a couple weeks worth of wins if you don’t stick to your dollars-per-game plan.

On the other side of the coin is the person who has been on a losing streak during the season or the day and badly wants to make the money back. These bettors are even more vulnerable than the winners, because they risk digging themselves into a deep, deep hole. Trying to win back the money you’ve lost by betting more is a sure fire way to scuttle your payroll quickly. Winning or losing, just stay steady with your bets. The odds are good that by the end of the season, it will all have evened out.

Do your homework. For some, gambling seems like an easy way to make money, but the real winners are the ones who study the games they are placing money on. There are many variables that can affect the outcome of a game, and you want to try to account for as many of them as possible when you start handicapping. There are lots of resources out there that a sports gambler who wants to win should be consulting weekly. Here are some things to check.

• Injury lists: Who’s injured? Who’s sick? This kind of information can be critical if you are trying to handicap a game. The injury of a star quarterback can be big headlines, and a lot of the time the sports lines will reflect the public biting into this fact. What you need to find out is, what about the rest of the team? Maybe the backup is still able to guide the team to a huge victory, in which case you don’t want to bet on the other team. Players that don’t make the headlines can be incredible leaders on their team; their absence might have a huge effect on the way the team plays.
• Lineup changes and trades. This is particularly important when you are betting at the beginning of the season. The Toronto Blue Jays might have absolutely owned the Minnesota Twins the previous season, but a few personnel changes might upset the balance considerably. Mid season trades make a lot of press, but getting in on some good value sports betting at the beginning of the season because you understand the changes a team has made might be that extra boost you need to have a winning season.
• Team idiosyncrasies. Some teams are awful at home, some can only win at home. Streak betting is popular, but keep in mind that streaks only take one game to end.

Buy low, sell high.

This idiom is huge in the stock market, but it’s important in sports betting as well. What it means is, look out for a team that has good value at the beginning or middle of a season, but don’t commit to them forever. Here’s an example.

Let’s say that the New England Patriots are coming off of a horrible season. They’re the laughing stock of the NFL and no one expects them to do that much. This impression will be doubled if they lost a few games in the new season. The result is a betting public that has lost faith and won’t touch the Patriots either for spreads or for wins. Now’s the time for the professional gambler to think about laying some money down on the Saints. To start with, book makers will be trying to even the action by increasing the spread, so there’s a better chance of beating it. You will probably be able to ride a team like this for the rest of the season, even if they start winning. Once they start turning into favorites, though, you’ll want to proceed with more caution. Don’t bet on them too heavily.

4 Star Bet of the Day

Cubs -1.5

The Cubbies are playing good ball right now and all cylinders are clicking. Derek Lee is hitting .342, Aramis Ramirez is back healthy, and Alfonso Soriano is heating up. The Nationals just lost their firestarter in Cristan Guzman (yeah, hard to believe he was a firestarter isn't it?), but have struggled to score runs since he's been out of the lineup. Washington has lost 12 of their last 16, and they are facing a staff ace in Cubs pitcher Carlos Zambrano who is 4-1 with an era of 1.43 in his last 5 starts. Oh, and to top it off, Tim Redding gets the start for the Nationals. Redding posted a stellar 5.32 era in Triple A in 17 starts so far this season. Um, yeah, we'll take the Cubs.

2 Star Bet of the Day

Yankees -1.5

Again, we're going to go with the pitching as our reason for taking the Yankees. Roger Clemens has historically dominated the Twins, posting a 3-1 record with a 1.37 ERA in five starts against the Twins (42-38) at Yankee Stadium. Boof Bonser has been up and down all year, but was pounded by the Yankees on April 10th for 6 runs in 4 innings pitched. We think both trends may continue, as the Yankees are in desperate need of a win.

Internet Gamlbing Legalization in the US

A bill before Congress that would legalize Internet gambling in the United States has American companies poised on the sidelines, waiting to capitalize on a potentially humongous new market.

The bill, the Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act, was introduced by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., in April. Congressional hearings on the feasibility of the bill were held in early June.

The bill seeks to reverse the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, which Congress passed last year and which bans Internet gambling in the United States by prohibiting American banks and credit card companies from processing payments to and from online gambling sites.

The stakes in this political showdown are huge. Frank's bill would set up a framework for the government to legalize, license, regulate and tax Internet gambling. The bill would also set up safeguards to prevent underage and compulsive gambling, as well as money laundering and fraud.

After trying for almost 10 years to pass anti-Internet-gambling legislation, the Republican-controlled Congress passed its law in October by tacking it onto a bill concerning port security, arguing that terrorists launder money via online gambling sites. Few members of Congress wanted to vote against beefing up port security right before an election and the legislation passed easily.

Now, with Democrats in control of Congress, Frank wants to repeal that law and legalize online gambling. Frank calls last year's bill "one of the stupidest things I ever saw."

"I want to get it undone," Frank said. "If an adult in this country, with his or her own money, wants to engage in an activity that harms no one, how dare we prohibit it? Adults are entitled to do with their own money what they want."

Under the bill that prohibits Internet gambling, banks and credit card companies have become Internet pseudo-cops, forced to determine which e-transactions involve online gambling and then blocking them. Frank is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, which oversees the activities of banks and credit card companies, who have made it clear they don't want to be the Net's gambling police.

Those banks and credit card companies have made numerous campaign contributions to Frank over the course of his 14 terms in Congress. If Internet gambling is legalized, not only will banks and credit card companies no longer have to block online gambling transactions, they'll be able to process them and profit from them.

Under the proposal, American companies for the first time could legally set up Internet casinos, run them from the United States and accept U.S. customers. Corporations that currently run land-based casinos in Las Vegas and elsewhere will likely be among the first to jump into the new industry, casino officials said, but they won't be the only ones.

"We would do so as quickly as we could," said MGM Mirage Senior Vice President Alan Feldman. "We would have it up and running within a year. And I have to believe that just about everyone will get involved at some level. All the major players."

The major players in gambling?

"Yes," he said. "But not just them. All the major entertainment companies will get involved, too. Sony, Apple, Universal, Columbia, Time Warner. It just seems logical that at some point they would find their way into the industry."

Even a company as family-oriented as Disney could get involved in opening an Internet casino, Feldman said. "I know Disney has certain beliefs about its core brand structure that could prevent it," he said. "But they could always create a sub-brand, as they do with their movie company Touchstone Pictures (which produces R-rated movies)."

MGM Mirage owns and operates about a dozen major Las Vegas casinos, including MGM Grand, Mirage, Monte Carlo, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, Luxor and Treasure Island. MGM Mirage previously operated an Internet casino from the Isle of Man in the British Isles, from 2001 to 2003, that was open to people in every country but the United States. The casino failed, Feldman said, because of that ban.

"About 70 percent of the global online wagering market is from the U.S.," he said. "So we were competing, with only 30 percent of the market. It wasn't enough to be profitable." But with the U.S. market, under Frank's proposal, it would be profitable, he predicted.

If the bill passes, MGM Mirage will operate its Internet casino from Nevada, Feldman said. "That's the point (of the bill)," he said. "For the home state to get the tax benefits."

The Las Vegas Sands Corp., which owns the Venetian casino in Las Vegas, as well as other entities, announced plans last year to open an Internet casino in 2007 that would operate from the Channel Islands and service the United Kingdom only. It hasn't opened yet.

But now, with the potential new law, the company's attentions are turning toward the more lucrative U.S. market.

An Internet casino run from the United States that Americans could patronize is definitely something the company would be interested in, should it become legal, according to Sands spokesman Ron Reese. "We see it as another opportunity to grow our business," he said.

Representatives from other major casino corporations made similar statements about Internet gambling, but didn't want to be quoted or identified, for fear of losing a competitive edge.

Not everyone is as excited about the prospects of legal Internet gambling.

Already, longtime Internet gambling opponent Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., who was a co-sponsor of the 2006 bill that banned gambling, has spoken out against Frank's bill.

"Online poker is currently the most addictive form of gambling activity among American youth," Kyl said. "Online poker players are more likely to exhibit problem gambling symptoms than other types of gamblers, and over half of young people who gamble on the Internet displays signs of problem gambling.

"There is an attempt by Congressman Barney Frank to remove the online gambling enforcement mechanisms provided by (the current law). I oppose efforts to remove tools that our state and federal authorities have long sought."

So-called "gaming" Web sites in the U.S., which are already legal, aren't considered "gambling" sites because they only offer casino games that can be played for free, and thus pose no financial risk to players. Such sites appear to be in key position to enter the legal Internet gambling business in the United States, should it open up, because they've already got the Internet infrastructure in place and it wouldn't take much effort to transform, for example, a play-for-free online poker site into a play-for-pay online poker site.

One such Web site is Triple Jack (www.triplejack.com), which operates from Coral Springs, Fla., and offers free online poker, with cash and other prizes awarded to winners. The site, in operation since 2005, makes money by carrying ads, and claims to have more than 100,000 registered players. Adding real-money poker would likely exponentially increase profits.

"The U.S. government is losing out on a lot of (tax) money by not allowing Internet gambling," said David Finkelstein, chief executive officer of Triple Jack. "European countries realize this and allow it."

If the legislation passes, it won't just be the federal tax coffers and the potential Internet casino operators that stand to benefit. Advertising agencies whose clients include online gambling firms, as well as media that carry online gambling advertising, also stand to profit.

Robert Blagman is the co-owner of Media Options Inc., a Los Angeles ad agency whose clients include some of the big hitters in the real-money online poker business: foreign-owned companies Party Poker (www.partypoker.com), Full Tilt Poker (www.fulltiltpoker.com), River Belle Poker (www.riverbellepoker.com) and 888 Poker (www.888.com).

Before the anti-online-gambling legislation passed, all four companies advertised heavily in the United States, especially on television, and Blagman's company made heady commissions.

The new law "was a disaster for us," Blagman said. "All our online poker clients immediately stopped advertising in the U.S.," costing his agency more than $1 million in commissions.

Last month's hearings before Frank's House Financial Services Committee focused on the feasibility of effectively using new technologies to regulate Internet gambling and prevent abuse by underage and problem gamblers. After the hearings ended, Frank gave no timetable as to when he expects the full House of Representatives, as well as the Senate, to vote on the bill.



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Net gambling history
1995 -- First Internet casino opens. Blackjack, roulette, craps and other casino games can be played for fun, but not real money.

1996 -- First Internet casino that can be played for real money, InterCasino, opens. Thousands more such virtual casinos will open in coming years.

1997 -- Three San Francisco residents and former Pacific Exchange employees, Jay Cohen, Steve Schillinger and Haden Ware, move to Antigua and start Web site called World Sports Exchange, an Internet sports book that accepts online wagers on sporting events. It's among the first.

1998 -- Country and western singer Kenny Rogers, who had the hit song "The Gambler," becomes first celebrity to open his own Internet casino. It's based in Curacao. Fellow celebs including Rodney Dangerfield, Larry Holmes and Bubba Smith soon follow suit.

1998 -- The U.S. Justice Department issues felony arrest warrants for Cohen, Schillinger, Ware and 18 other Americans for their roles in the illegal operation of a half dozen different Internet casinos and sports books around the world. Feds say the accused violated the Federal Wire Act, which prohibits wagering over phone lines, which the Internet uses.

1998 -- Cohen and 13 others who were charged turn themselves in to federal authorities in the U.S. All but Cohen have charges dismissed or have plea bargains and receive fines. Cohen declines a plea bargain offering no jail time, choosing to go to trial. He hires attorney Ben Brafman, who previously defended Salvatore "Sammy the Bull" Gravano. Schillinger, Ware and five others who were charged remain fugitives.

2000 -- After a jury trial in federal court in New York, Cohen is convicted of seven felony counts of Internet bookmaking and related offenses, and sentenced to 21 months in federal prison. He appeals the verdict.

2000 -- Rogers becomes first celebrity to close his Internet casino. He cites the unclear legal status of the operation.

2001 -- The U.S. Court of Appeals upholds Cohen's conviction.

2002 -- Cohen begins serving his sentence at a federal prison in, ironically, Las Vegas. He becomes the only person in U.S. history to go to jail for Internet gambling.

2003 -- Chris Moneymaker, a Memphis accountant, wins the World Series of Poker in Las Vegas after qualifying by winning an online poker tournament. The Internet poker boom begins.

2004 -- Cohen is released from prison after serving 17 months.

2006 -- Congress passes the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, which bans U.S. banks and credit card companies from transferring monies to and from Internet gambling sites, making it difficult for Americans to fund online gambling.

2007 -- The Poker Players Alliance, a San Francisco lobby group, hires former Sen. Al D'Amato, a noted poker player, to help get the law changed so it doesn't affect online poker. The alliance says poker is a game of skill, not luck, and therefore isn't gambling.

2007 -- Rep. Barney Frank introduces bill called Internet Gambling Regulation and Enforcement Act, which would legalize Internet gambling in the U.S. The bill is yet to be voted on.

From Tom Somach

2 Star Bet of the Day

Red Sox -1.5

Yes, the Sox have been struggling a bit of late, but nothing better for a struggling team than a home date against a pitcher such as Kameron Lee. Despite his last outing, Julian Tavarez has been pitching well and the Red Sox offense is bound to get back on track. Especially at Fenway.

3 Star Bet of the Day

Cleveland -1.5

We're going with a matchup trend in this one. CC Sabathia hasn't loss to the Devil Rays since 2004, and is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA in nine career games against them. He has been even more impressive at Jacobs Field against the Devil Rays (33-45), entering with a 27-inning scoreless streak at home against them. He's won all four home starts against Tampa Bay with a 0.58 ERA in those games and 33 strikeouts in 31 innings. We like this trend, and we like Cleveland at home against a team in the midst of a bad run.

peakplayers now 6-0 since return

With the Angels comeback victory last night, peakplayers upped its record to 6-0 since returning to the online world of handicapping.

Check back later for our picks for today.

2 Star Bet of the Day

Angels -1.5

Again we like the pitching matchup. The Angels offense should go to town on Steve Trachsel, while Kelvim Escobar is quietly having a potential Cy Young award winning season. The Orioles are still without Miguel Tejada and have the worst rated offense in the league. We're going to look past the Angels recent woes and give the runs.

The truth about betting parlays

Parlay bets are gambling’s guilty pleasure. Just like biggie sizing your combo or doing the chicken dance - you know you shouldn’t, but we all have.

Tying together a few favorite plays with the promise that a small bet can become a big payday is very tempting. Why wouldn’t you put five bucks down on five games for two grand? Because parlays are about as hard to hit as Floyd Mayweather Jr., that’s why.

Ask a professional handicapper and they will tell you if you plan on making a career out of sports gambling it is a one-bet-at-a-time, one-day-at-a-time process. That said, you ask the same capper if they’ve ever parlayed and chances are they’ll crack a smile, give a chuckle, and follow it up with a story.

“I remember getting paid 80-1 on a parlay during a dreadful 2005 NFL season on one of those weekends when just about all the underdogs cashed in,” says Ted Sevransky of Covers Experts. “I also had one crazy one during bowl season (2003) when I needed Cal to beat Virginia Tech. That one was worth about five figures.”

Parlay bets are popular at Las Vegas sportsbooks, which cater to tourists looking for that big Vegas jackpot. Walk into any book along the strip and the first thing you’ll see is parlay cards, prominently displayed and advertised.

“Parlay bettors looking for a big score are classic casino losers," says Sevransky.

However, according to Las Vegas oddsmaker Keith Glantz, regular bettors as well as first timers are taking advantage of parlays more than ever. Glantz credits the increased interest to favorable lines and less juice being offered by competing books to draw customers.

The 25-year sports gambling veteran believes the parlay, also known as a “sucker’s bet,” is becoming a solid wagering strategy since casinos are paying out more to stay competitive.

“They used to say the same with exotics on horse racing,” says Glantz. “(Parlays) pay pretty big for a small amount. If you are betting like that it isn't that bad a play. But for the books, of course they would like to see everyone take parlays.”

On average, parlay bets make up 30 percent of a Las Vegas sportsbooks’ holding, dropping recently due to bigger payouts. The handle of an online casino consists of about 17 percent parlay money since they don’t see the square tourist action like Nevada’s books.

Bookmakers at bodog.com report that one in four two-team parlays pay out but bettors making what they call “kamikaze” cards of 10 to 12 games, brings the overall success rate down to between 10 and 15 percent.

The widely popular sportsbook has its fair share of incredible parlay stories like one customer service agent who received a phone call from a bettor who had cashed in a $15 nine-game ticket for several thousand dollars. The rep was amazed and congratulated the customer saying, “You must be ecstatic hitting a nine teamer?” The customer responded with, “I’ve done it before. This is easy."

“Sure enough the player had hit another nine and an eight-team parlay earlier in the year,” says a bodog.com bookmaker. “We never track them as they happen but we’ll gladly congratulate the players when they hit a big one.”

There are unlimited stories like this and anyone who has laid coin on an event has had dreams of grandeur involving that one big score. Even the world’s most patient and careful gamblers can’t resist the lure of the parlay bet.

Wise guys know the risks as well as the benefits of making a parlay and look for opportunities to improve their bets while keeping the stakes low.

"The one time (a parlay) does make sense is in MLB and NHL when you play the moneyline and have a couple -150 favorites on the board,” says Scott Rickenbach of Covers Experts. “If you're trying to win $200 on each and split, you lose money. So I'll tie them together to lower my risk on one bet. It reduces the cash you put out on favorites.”

Like any risk, doing your homework is the difference between cashing your bet and chasing it. If you research five plays and feel strongly about three, bet those three and parlay the remaining with a small wager - especially if these games are connected.

Correlated bets, like sides and totals, have great parlay potential and give truth to the age-old betting adage of favorites and the over or dogs and the under. A perfect case of correlated bets was at this year’s NCAA national tournament when North Carolina was a 10-point favorite in its second round matchup with Michigan State.

If the Tar Heels were to cover the number set by oddsmakers they would have to play their up-tempo style of basketball, leading bettors to take over the 135-point total. If the Spartans were to have a chance they would have to slow down the game and grind it out on defense, giving value to the under. North Carolina eventually won and covered 81-67, also playing over the total and cashing in for sharp bettors who parlayed both lines.

"The No. 1 thing is don't bet parlays unless there is a reason,” says Sevransky. “Ninety-nine percent of reasons to parlay are wrong. Late season scenarios, when a team's performance affects another team's performances, are good spots with reason."

Many times in a sport's closing weeks the playoff picture is still being painted, like this year’s Arena Football schedule. In Week 17 parlay bettors were tempted to take the moneyline on the New Orleans VooDoo along with the Colorado Crush. The VooDoo’s game with the Georgia Force held homefield advantage implications for Colorado’s opponents, the Dallas Desperados.

In theory, if New Orleans beat Georgia then Dallas would have automatic homefield advantage in the playoffs and could rest players against the Crush. However, the VooDoo failed to beat the Force and the Desperados defeated Colorado.

"I don't think I've ever won a parlay in my life, we're about 0-500,” says handicapper and lines consultant David Malinsky. “But I do know a lot of wise guys that make them. One of the things that sharps have to be aware of is profiling at sportsbooks and playing a parlay here and there can keep the books off you."

Malinsky adds that most online casinos monitor their customers very closely and have two completely different sets of odds – one for the public and one for high rollers. Sharps trying to keep a low profile with books will occasionally put together multiple-game parlays to take the appearance of an average bettor while keeping their odds favorable for future wagers.

Of course, you can use whatever parlay strategy you like, but a little luck still goes a long way. Even longtime Vegas insiders like Glantz have to laugh at some of the unlikely parlay payouts he’s encountered during his time in the industry.

“We used to put out a special that if you bet five dollars on a 15-play card we would pay 20,000-1 if they all hit,” says Glantz. “So one week a lady came down and bet for her husband. She was supposed to take all faves but mistakenly took one dog. All the favorites won that week and the one that didn’t was the game she messed up on.”

The very next week a truck driver mistakenly ended up at the hotel and casino where Glantz was working and alternated favorites and underdogs on the same 15-game parlay card. He won all 15 games and forced the casino to hand out its second $100,000 jackpot in two weeks.

“If he had gone the other way he would have went 0-15,” jokes Glantz. “You laugh at it now but at the time it wasn’t funny at all.”

From Jason Logan at Covers.com

2 Star Bet of the Day (Daytime Bet)

Detroit -1.5

The Tigers have lost 4 straight at home, but that is about to change. With Kenny Rogers on the hill and fresh, Detroit should be able to hold the Texas offense and create some O themselves against Kevin Millwoods stellar 7.31 era.

Does Defense Win Championships?

A new football season is almost under way, and it won't be long before someone, somewhere makes the claim that "a good defense beats a good offense" or, more broadly, that "defense wins championships."

You're bound to hear this claim made again and again, and many people apparently believe it. But does it hold up to statistical scrutiny?

In the current issue of Chance, statistician Scott M. Berry of College Station, Texas, describes his effort to investigate this claim. He concludes that, in general, the quality of the offense matters more than the quality of the defense in determining a game's outcome.

To test the claim, Berry developed an equation to model the quality of National Football League (NFL) teams, taking into account home field advantage, offensive prowess, and defensive strength. He used the results of every National Football League game from the 1993 through 2005 seasons (excluding the 2006 Super Bowl), a total of 3,316 games, as a starting point.

For one thing, the data show a positive correlation between a team having a good offense and a team having a good defense. This makes sense. "A team with a good defense will cause more turnovers, will actually score more themselves, and create better field position," Berry says. "A good offense forces opponents to play riskier strategies, create better field position, and can leave their defense on the field for shorter amounts of time."

The following table lists the 10 best offenses and defenses of the last 13 years, according to Berry's model. Each team has an offensive parameter (O) and a defensive parameter (D). The mean number of points scored by one team, S, is their offensive parameter, O, times the defensive parameter, D, for their opponent. The ratings are scaled so that a team with an average offense and defense playing another average team would each score 21 points.



As evident from the table, Berry's model suggests that the 1998 Minnesota Vikings had the best offense of the last 13 years, with O = 34.24. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens had the best defense, with D = 0.621.

To get an estimate of the likely outcome of a game between two teams, multiply one team's offensive parameter by the other team's defensive parameter. In Berry's model, an average team would be expected to score an average of 21 points. So, if the 1998 Vikings were to play the 2000 Ravens, the Vikings would be estimated to have a slight edge, scoring 21.26 points (O times D).

Overall, the best offense appears to be a slightly better bet than the best defense. Only one pairing in the top 10 gives the defense a slight advantage (the 2004 Kansas City Chiefs versus the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers).

The trend also holds for superior and average teams. "Though certainly not convincing, there is evidence that a good offense beats a good defense (all else being equal)," Berry concludes. "This differs from the common perception that defense wins championships."

But for really awful teams, he says, "it does appear that a bad defense beats a bad offense—in fact, a really bad defense is a big advantage over a really bad offense."

Of course, offense and defense are fundamentally inseparable. What happens on offense affects what happens on defense and vice versa.

Moreover, statistical models, no matter how sophisticated, can't say with certainty which team will win any given game. There's enough variability in the game of football to make all sorts of outcomes possible—even ones that appear to be highly unlikely.

Indeed, it's interesting to note that, of the top offensive teams of the last 13 years, only two actually went on to win a Super Bowl (1994 Forty-Niners and 1998 Broncos). Of the top defensive teams, four won the Super Bowl (2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, 2004 Patriots, and 1996 Packers). And two of the top offensive teams (2002 and 2004 Chiefs) didn't even make the playoffs.

As for the 2005 Super Bowl, Berry's model gave the Seattle Seahawks (better defense and slightly worse offense) the edge over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh won.

3 Star Bet of the Day

Baltimore/New York Under 8.5

Clemens vs. Bedard is a strong pitching matchup and both of these clubs are struggling to score runs right now. Baltimore is without their top bat in the lineup in Miguel Tejada, while New York has struggled to put runs on the board the past few nights. Bedard has won his last 2 starts against the Yankees and has been more dominant of late. Meanwhile, Clemens is beginning to get into a groove and should have no problem shutting down the weak Orioles lineup. The peakplayers panel is back and is putting a solid 3 stars on the line in this one.

Summer Lull? Don't Bet on Futures

With the summer lull in sports betting many bettors are reviewing potential future bets. These bets are almost a tradition for some, annually backing perennial losers as if it would mess with the sports betting Gods if they don't make their donation. Strategically speaking these bets are a drain on bettors and offer about as much value as lottery tickets.

I know it is almost heresy to speak out against futures bets. People love the idea of betting a little and winning a lot. Some bettors swear they profit through betting these and then hedging out winners in the post-season. I have heard all the excuses and I am here to tell you they are all poor reasons to bet futures. Sports books of all stripes make some of their biggest profits from parlays and futures. There can be no better reason to avoid both.

One of the biggest errors in future bets is the first one: the amount bet on a future. Here is the fundamental problem bettors want to be rewarded big when they make the right call. Some others bet big enough to allow for hedging opportunities later. Either way this is incorrect bet sizing.

Theoretically speaking all bets should be made so that if your bet wins, you earn one unit. If you are betting a 50-1 shot, you probably don't want to be two percent of your normal bet size. However this is the correct way from a purely mathematical viewpoint, the one you should be using to size your bets based on your bankroll.

Now say you followed this and actually hit your longshot. You will win exactly one bet, the same as if you bet them against the spread in the championship and they covered. Not exactly the thrill you are looking for from futures bets is it?

Hedging is often wrong, but hard to resist. A guaranteed profit seems like good math, except that it is an illusion. Bettors constantly argue it make sense to hedge, but they are simply looking at the situation incorrectly.

If you have held your futures ticket for three months of the season and now have a chance to take "free" money by hedging, you probably overlook a simple fact. When you make a futures bet chances are you ignore or underestimate what could happen in the regular season, instead focusing on who a team has to beat in the playoffs to determine if the bet has value. Even if your team does make the playoffs, don't forget you did take on the risk they might not have done so.

This is the reason why you have to look at futures betting done with hedging in mind as a big risk. Others will tell how they can't lose with the futures they hold going into the playoffs because they will hedge, but you have to wonder how many losing tickets are they not letting onto.

The way you make money at sports betting is to bet into positive expectations. Hedging blindly in order to guarantee a win takes away from your expectation. Now if you didn't make the first mistake and bet a proper amount to win one unit you probably wouldn't even be inclined to hedge. Make it simple and steer clear of futures and this problem goes away.

Futures and an almost silent drain on your bankroll. So small you won't really notice it.
Still remember the more you bet, the more you risk your bankroll to theoretical edges held by the bookmaker. Even worse the bookmaker builds in far larger margins in his future lines. Think about it, how do you make money making more bets into bad propositions? The answer quite simply is you don't.

From Wild Bill at EOG

4 Star Bet of the Day

Philadelphia -1.5

We're simply not buying into Homer Bailey (just yet). Philly's offense is one of the best in the league and it wouldn't be surprising to see them give the young rookie a hard time tonight. Bailey was rushed to the majors and is due to get hit pretty hard.

3 Star Bet of the Day

Atlanta -1.5

Tim Hudson, Tim Hudson, Tim Hudson. Hudson is having a resurgent season and he's back to take on the franchise he has dominated in years past. In six starts, Hudson is 3-1 with a miniscule ERA of 1.30 against the Nationals franchise. We're running with that stat line and expect a low scoring game.

The (Mis) Education of a Sportsbettor

Most new sportsbettors start on exactly the wrong foot - with ESPN and statistics. There is a reason ex-jocks and sports broadcasters make terrible gamblers, even though they might know more about the players, coaches and "intricacies of the game". Unfortunately, this is also why almost all sports gamblers are destined to eventually lose their shirts. All the hoopla, press coverage, speculation, and prognostication surrounding sports are pretty much irrelevant to beating the handicapping game.

For a beginning handicapper, most statistics are about as helpful as the display of past spins at your favorite roulette table. Fun to look at, but any pattern you discern is nothing more than an illusion, a temporary blip in "long-term probability". Short-term trends are a favorite of new handicappers that should be completely avoided. They sound great in sports service advertisements and as talking points on ESPN, but they are mostly useless until you have an idea of how it affects the underlying spread of the game. Otherwise they are little more than messy traps for novice handicappers. Likewise, the garden-variety statistics found in newspapers and on internet sports sites are mostly worthless, having long been factored into the lines.

New sports gamblers aiming for success should reach for the low-hanging fruit first. Concentrating on betting into weak lines will allow you to get your feet wet and is really the easiest way to get started. Consider the lines at "sharp" books as the most accurate line, and look for games that are scalpable - that means a game that if you bet one side at one book and one side at another book you would at least break even. Play only the weak end of the scalp - the line at the weak book. For instance, if you see Pittsburgh +180 at Bodog, and their opponent at -178 at WSEX, play the +180. If WSEX is offering you -178 on the opposite team, that means they are more than happy to take +180 on Pittsburgh - and WSEX is likely smarter than you at making lines, especially if you are just getting started. Use the big boys' opinions to make you money while you learn the ropes.

Understanding public betting is essential, and you can use it to hammer away at some of the "public" books. Many sportsbooks cater to a more recreational clientele, and that means you will have a better chance of finding "off" lines on high-profile events that have attracted a lot of public wagering attention. A telltale sign of a book that is easy pickings is to find operations that tend to impose unreasonable limits on players or even outright eject players for winning too much. This is the sign of a book slow to move their lines or otherwise offers prices that are favorable to players with their eyes open.

While opinions of what books are "sharp" can vary widely, consider any of the top-tier books to be among them: WSEX, The Greek, CRIS (Bookmaker), and Pinnacle. They haven't built successful businesses by giving money away, so their linesmakers tend to be more experienced and their lines sharper. They also have high limits and are not known for "booting" winning players, so they tend to attract a lot of sharper action, tightening their lines through market economics.

Of course, every beginning handicapper likes to make "picks" on his favorite sport, usually one of the "Big Three" for U.S.-based bettors: football, basketball, or baseball (hockey no longer deserves inclusion on the list). The big-market sports naturally attract the most betting action due to their popularity. The downside for gamblers is that these games often tend to have the most spot-on lines, at least as far as the big sportsbooks. For that very reason, these are among the worst sports you can choose to focus your handicapping on.

Any handicapping you do should focus only on the potentially weakest lines available. Mostly this means proposition bets and small-market sports. Again, look to the sharper sportsbooks to give you a clue to what they consider their weak spots, by looking for markets with consistently low limits. Pinnacle will take $100,000 on NFL sides, but only $1000 or less on some offerings.

You can think of this as the sportsbook as the bettor: Pinnacle is willing to risk $100,000 on a bet on either side of an NFL game, so you can be sure that they are pretty confident that they have an edge there. Conversely, they may be only willing to risk $1000 on an obscure boxing match, knowing that they very well may be taking the worst of it on some of their lines. If the book is not willing to take a big bet, it is probably less confident in its line and can potentially be the source of favorable wagers.

The spreads on the market are also a good indicator of confidence in lines. Many books use 30- or even 40-cent lines on propositions. This leaves the linesmaker more room for error in setting the price. When the bookmaker is trying to avoid getting beaten by sharp players, spreading the line out makes it more likely that both sides of the wager are bad bets for the players.

Smaller markets frequently offer more favorable lines since the low limits discourage the real heavy hitters from combing over those lines, and negates the effect a big bettor or group of bettors can have on the line. A big bettor dropping his max bet on a prop might still only be $500, easily balanced by ten $50 "squares" on the other side. This causes less drastic line moves, as opposed to major sports where a big syndicate can get hundreds of thousands of dollars down in a short time, making the public opinion mostly irrelevant and correcting the line rather quickly.

Another advantage of smaller markets is the variety of lines. Not only do prices vary quite widely, the handicaps themselves are often quite different. You may see LeBron James over 22 points at one sportsbook while it is over 28.5 points plus assists at another, or the Steelers over 120 rushing yards at -120 at one book and over 130 +120 at another Which line is better? The linemakers at many books couldn't tell you, and the small market (and profit potential) on props leaves them less willing to take the time to find out. Handicapping or database analysis can leave the handicapper some room to find edges on these kinds of bets. Some sportsbooks will have unique match-ups or propositions that can't be found at other books. Again, the narrow market means these lines are more likely to be in error, and without the benefit of "cloning" lines from other shops, the linesmaker's opening number is more likely to be in error.

If you've been finding your gambling piggy-bank depleted, or are trying to turn your recreational betting into something a little more profitable, consider focusing on finding weak lines and concentrating on smaller market sports. There's nothing wrong with throwing down a fun wager on the hometown team on a football Sunday now and then, but making money often requires going somewhere that everyone else isn't.

From Jay Graziani at MajorWager.com

2 Star Bet of the Day

NY Mets -1.5

The Mets are beginning to get their act together and should be able to pull off the sweep of the A's today. The pitching matchup favors the Mets as John Maine is going against Joe Kennedy who has struggled his last two outings. Kennedy also has a very poor interleague record, and the A's are struggling to put up runs against the Mets pitching staff. Bet soft on the Mets.

The Return of peakplayers

peakplayers,Inc. was founded in 1996 by a group of young men who were tired of seeing 1-800 numbers advertising "Free Picks" that would give you one free pick and a 1-900 number for the remaining picks. 1-800 PPlayer advertised free picks and delivered with an overwhelming 75% profit ratio ATS in its first year in business. peakplayers became an instant success. Along with its success came additional input from some of the best handicappers on the east coast. The peakplayers panel grew to 53 handicappers who sent in their picks on a weekly basis. From 1999 to 2003 this panel hit at an 81% profit ratio.

Seeing the growing trend of online gambling sites and handicappers, in 1999, 1-800 PPlayer moved to the internet where the success continued for four more profitable years. Unfortunately, at the end of the 2003 football season, peakplayers was forced to shut down. Free picks simply weren't paying the bills, online advertising hadn't yet hit the internet full throttle, and we weren't able to handle our costs. Now, 4 years since its last picks peakplayers is back and dedicated to giving the casual fan 100% Free Handicapping advice. The peakplayers have returned and their free picks are the best free picks you will find online. These picks are guided by a proven mechanism to pick games. In addition to the return of the peakplayers panel, this site will dedicate itself to helping the avid gambler get an edge, without spending any additional money. You already pay enough juice, so while our goal is to make money, the money won't come from you. Simply visit our site throughout the day and get the most up to date information in the sports gambling world.

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